‘Lowest possible’ 1.5°C overshoot scenario limits peak warming around mid-century to 1.7-1.8°C
Emissions cuts of 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 needed for this scenario, alongside increasing CO2 removal throughout the century
Advances in renewables, climate policies have delivered real emission reductions across countries and sectors, but massive global scale-up required to get on track
Nairobi, 21 October 2026 – With global temperature rise set to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, urgent and stringent cuts to greenhouse emissions are needed to minimize the magnitude and duration of overshoot and return to 1.5°C by the end of the century, a new UNEP report finds.
(Pressemitteilung UN, eine maschinelle Übersetzung findet ihr am Ende des englischen Textes)
The Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return looks at a ‘lowest possible’ 1.5°C overshoot scenario, in which peak warming by around the middle of the century is limited to 1.7-1.8°C and global temperature rise is returned to or below 1.5°C by 2100, with about a 50 per cent chance.
To get onto this pathway, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would have to be reduced by 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040, all relative to 2025 levels. By contrast, the full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would only reduce emissions by 5-8 per cent by 2030 and 11-15 per cent by 2035, relative to 2025 levels. This implies average annual reduction rates of 5.7 per cent for 2025-2035, higher than the old Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) pathways laid out by the IPCC, which required annual reduction rates of about 5 per cent.
„New UNEP report lays out emission cuts needed for return to 1.5°C“ weiterlesen
