{"id":64874,"date":"2026-10-21T09:57:03","date_gmt":"2026-10-21T07:57:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.schiebener.net\/wordpress\/?p=64874"},"modified":"2026-10-21T11:09:29","modified_gmt":"2026-10-21T09:09:29","slug":"new-unep-report-lays-out-emission-cuts-needed-for-return-to-1-5c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.schiebener.net\/wordpress\/new-unep-report-lays-out-emission-cuts-needed-for-return-to-1-5c\/","title":{"rendered":"New UNEP report lays out emission cuts needed for return to 1.5\u00b0C"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u2018Lowest possible\u2019 1.5\u00b0C overshoot scenario limits peak warming around mid-century to 1.7-1.8\u00b0C<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Emissions cuts of 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 needed for this scenario, alongside increasing CO2<\/sub> removal throughout the century<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Advances in renewables, climate policies have delivered real emission reductions across countries and sectors, but massive global scale-up required to get on track<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n
\n
\"\"
Mitmachen! Es ist noch nicht zu sp\u00e4t, um f\u00fcr das Klima aktiv zu werden. (Logo der Winterberger Klimagruppe)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Nairobi, 21 October 2026 \u2013 With global temperature rise set to exceed 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels, urgent and stringent cuts to greenhouse emissions are needed to minimize the magnitude and duration of overshoot and return to 1.5\u00b0C by the end of the century, a new UNEP report finds.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Pressemitteilung UN<\/a>, eine maschinelle \u00dcbersetzung findet ihr am Ende des englischen Textes)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return<\/em><\/a> looks at a \u2018lowest possible\u2019 1.5\u00b0C overshoot scenario, in which peak warming by around the middle of the century is limited to 1.7-1.8\u00b0C and global temperature rise is returned to or below 1.5\u00b0C by 2100, with about a 50 per cent chance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To get onto this pathway, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would have to be reduced by 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040, all relative to 2025 levels. By contrast, the full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would only reduce emissions by 5-8 per cent by 2030 and 11-15 per cent by 2035, relative to 2025 levels. This implies average annual reduction rates of 5.7 per cent for 2025-2035, higher than the old Sixth Assessment Report<\/a> (AR6) pathways laid out by the IPCC<\/a>, which required annual reduction rates of about 5 per cent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

„Overshoot is not surrender. We can still keep it as small and as short as possible \u2013 and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century,“ UN Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres said in a message on the report. „The new Emissions Gap Report from the United Nations Environment Programme shows us what it will take: Cutting global greenhouse gas emissions by 18 per cent by 2030 and 45 per cent by 2035 \u2013 compared with 2025 levels.“<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the report finds that there are more opportunities than ever to accelerate action. Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, renewable energy has boomed, total energy supply from coal and oil has grown slower than projected and climate policies have cut emissions in many places.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEvery additional fraction of a degree and additional year of warming above 1.5\u00b0C increases climate impacts and risks, such as the deadly floods, heatwaves and wildfires that have plagued many nations this year,\u201d said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. \u201cSo, we must pull out all the stops to minimize peak warming and return to 1.5\u00b0C by the end of the century. This is possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe have a wealth of success stories showing that emissions can be cut quickly. It is now up to nations to urgently put in place policies that spark fast, deep and sustained emissions reductions, and put the world on track for a more stable climate and more stable economies and societies.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Temperature projections still far too high<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report finds that if current policies continue, warming could reach 2.8\u00b0C within this century and increase thereafter. If all NDCs are delivered and similar efforts continue, warming will be limited to 2.6\u00b0C. These outcomes are worse than last year\u2019s projections due to the withdrawal of the United States of America from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions. New NDCs submitted since last year\u2019s report have made a negligible difference for these projections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even in the most optimistic scenario, where all NDCs plus additional net-zero targets are achieved, global warming would only be limited to 2.1\u00b0C in this century. Without urgent action, keeping peak warming below 1.7 to 1.8\u00b0C will quickly become impossible. Every five years of CO2<\/sub> emissions at current levels pushes peak warming up by around 0.1\u00b0C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, the lowest possible 1.5\u00b0C overshoot scenario creates a need for the removal from the atmosphere and permanent storage of roughly 320 gigatonnes of CO2<\/sub> (equivalent to around eight years of 2024\u2019s global CO2<\/sub> emissions) over the course of this century. However, socioeconomic and technological challenges make the chances of achieving this uncertain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Successful climate efforts need to be scaled up<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Returning to or below 1.5\u00b0C can be done, particularly since there is growing evidence that climate policies across the world can and have reduced emissions. The report links the introduction or strengthening of climate-related policies to dozens of structural shifts in developed and developing countries, resulting in significant emissions reductions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 220 policy evaluations provide further evidence of what works. Evaluated policies in the electricity sector reduced emissions by an average of 9 per cent, while economic instruments, including carbon cap-and-trade schemes and carbon taxes, achieved reductions of 5-13 per cent across sectors in the evaluation period considered. Yet these successes remain concentrated in specific sectors, countries and periods. Getting onto a lowest possible 1.5\u00b0C overshoot pathway requires replicating, extending, and sustaining these successes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Accelerating implementation of Global Stocktake goals<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the first Global Stocktake (GST), nations agreed to triple renewable energy capacity and double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, reduce non-CO2<\/sub> emissions, halt and reverse deforestation and forest degradation, and more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, recent rates of change across all indicators tracking absolute GHG emissions \u2013 including CO2<\/sub> emissions in energy systems, road transport emissions, and non-CO2<\/sub> emissions, notably methane emissions \u2013 are heading in the wrong direction. While current policy scenarios project that some of these emissions will stabilize by 2030, none show declines occurring at the pace and scale needed to minimize the magnitude and duration of overshoot of 1.5\u00b0C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second GST can build on the first by reaffirming priority mitigation action areas, extending quantified goals to 2035 and 2040, and making existing action areas more tangible through clearer and, where possible, quantified targets. The report provides a preliminary assessment of such extensions to 2035 and 2040, consistent with the lowest 1.5\u00b0C overshoot scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the goal to triple global renewable energy capacity and double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvement, an extension to 2035 would imply at least tripling renewable electricity capacity and reducing primary energy intensity of GDP by at least 30 per cent relative to 2025 levels. For 2040, these estimates increase to at least 4.5 times and at least 40 per cent respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The good news is that since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, global renewable electricity capacity has grown three times faster than anticipated, with solar PV build-out increasing seven times faster. A continuation of these trends, supported by additional policies, would bring the world on track to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 and increase the share of wind and solar in electricity generation to levels consistent with the lowest possible 1.5\u00b0C overshoot scenario. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Extending the goal related to transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems would require globally reducing the share of coal, oil and gas in total energy supply by at least 55, 15 and 5 per cent by 2035 relative to 2025. Reductions of at least 75, 30 and 35 per cent would be required in 2040.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, electricity generation from coal would need to fall by at least 75 per cent in 2035 relative to 2025 and be effectively phased out globally by 2040. Methane emissions would need to be at least 25 per cent lower than 2025 levels by 2035 and at least 40 per cent lower by 2040.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00dcbersetzung (mit deepl.com) <\/h5>\n\n\n\n



Neuer UNEP-Bericht ((UN Environment Programme)-Report) beschreibt die f\u00fcr eine Begrenzung auf 1,5 \u00b0C erforderlichen Emissionssenkungen<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n